The secondary watch market has always been a dynamic and highly speculative space, but it has never been as volatile as in the past few years. The introduction of Rolex’s Certified Pre-Owned (CPO) program, managed first exclusively through Bucherer and rolled out to its other authorized dealers, has sent ripples across the luxury watch world, signaling a significant shift in how brands, retailers, and consumers interact with pre-owned timepieces. But this move by Rolex is more than just a new way to certify pre-owned watches — it’s a strategic reset of the secondary market that could have profound implications for prices, collectors, and retailers alike.

The Rolex CPO Program: A Bold Move to Tame the Market

Rolex’s decision to enter the CPO market through Bucherer is a significant acknowledgment of the power the secondary market holds. For years, pre-owned Rolexes have often fetched prices significantly higher than their retail counterparts — an anomaly in the luxury goods business. This phenomenon was primarily fueled by flippers and speculators who took advantage of the high demand and relatively limited supply. Watches like the Submariner, Daytona, and GMT-Master II became symbols of this speculative bubble, with prices soaring in the grey market.

By stepping in with its own CPO program, Rolex is aiming to control the market and eradicate the grey market which represents ~25% of the total transactional value. Seeing flippers reselling a watch even before it hits the point of sales is not only detrimental to the brand’s equity, but foremost it creates frustration for real clients who want to buy a watch to simply wear it. Bunkering watches in a safe and betting that the prices will rise has not only added an additional pressure on the supply side with a brand continuously having to deal with an ever-growing demand. Even though not every single reference of Rolex’s 450 references making its product collection is a hot cake, some 50 or so are, and the brand could easily sell at least 50% more watches each year.

As Rolex CEO Jean-Frédéric Dufour said in an interview: “I don’t like it when people compare watches with stocks. We make products, not investments.” This by the way is a very strong statement, because the CEO of Rolex never gives any interview in his function as head of the brand, but here Mr. Dufour could voice his frustration in his capacity as the President of the Watches & Wonders Foundation, the host of the most important yearly watch exhibition. The fact that the head of the world’s most important watch brand expresses his disliking so directly over the fact that some speculators are misusing their products as a new asset class is quite a statement.

The brand can now offer certified, authentic pre-owned watches, backed by an official Rolex guarantee, effectively competing with grey-market dealers and resellers. This move should, in theory, curb the rampant flipping and speculative pricing that has driven up secondary market values to unsustainable levels.

But the big question remains: Will Rolex’s CPO program actually lower resale prices? The answer is nuanced. And for the time being the answer is clearly no. It’s all the contrary in fact, as the prices for certified watches require to pay a substantial premium against non-certified of 15-30% depending on the references and the markets. And the reasons for the premium are quite simple to understand as you get a watch which has been certified by the brand itself and you get an additional guarantee of 2 years.

While the program could help reign in some of the frothiest prices for newer models, especially those still in production, vintage models — those that are no longer in the catalog — are a different story.

Impact on Prices for Existing and Vintage Models

For current-production models, the CPO program is likely to set a ceiling for pre-owned prices. Rolex’s control over this segment of the market means that buyers will prefer to pay a premium for an officially certified watch, complete with a Rolex guarantee, rather than gamble on the grey market. This added security might mean that buyers will shy away from grey-market dealers, which in turn could lead to a softening in prices for these sources. In the long term, we may see a gradual stabilization where pre-owned prices for recent models align more closely with retail values, or at least become less volatile.

Initially limited to watches aged between 3 and 20 years, it seems that the brand has opened the upper limit. We are now seeing watches being certified by the brand which are vintage, for instance a magnificent Datejust in yellow gold from 1963 at Beyer. This is a little bit surprising, because the brand can’t certify based on its archives and the bill of material registered there, that for instance the dial is the original one. Hence no one, apart from the initial buyer of the watch or the retailer having sold that watch, can guarantee you that a precise watch from before the 1980’s is still 100% genuine. But the upside is that Rolex is committing to certifying watches which are vintage unlike what auction houses can provide you with.

Collectors and enthusiasts of vintage Rolex models are likely to remain more engaged in the auction houses and independent vintage specialists, where provenance and condition drive price as much as brand backing.

The Ripple Effect on Non-Official Resellers

For non-official resellers, Rolex’s foray into the CPO space poses a significant challenge. Grey-market dealers, independent pre-owned specialists, and platforms like Chrono24 have long been the go-to for buyers looking to purchase Rolex watches without the waiting lists or restrictions imposed by authorized dealers. Now, with the CPO program offering a more secure, brand-backed option, many consumers will likely gravitate toward Rolex’s official channels, leaving the grey market to compete on price, inventory, and trustworthiness.

With the CPO program offering a more secure, brand-backed option, many consumers will likely gravitate toward Rolex’s official channels, leaving the grey market to compete on price, inventory, and trustworthiness.

Non-official resellers may be forced to offer deeper discounts to remain competitive, potentially thinning their profit margins. Moreover, the presence of Rolex’s CPO label could instill more hesitancy in buyers, who might now second-guess purchases from non-authorized dealers. This could reshape the entire pre-owned market as we know it, pushing grey-market resellers to the margins.

What About the Other Luxury Brands?

Rolex is not alone in seeking to regulate its pre-owned market. Several other top-tier watch brands, including Audemars Piguet (AP), Richard Mille (RM), Vacheron Constantin, Cartier, and Jaeger-LeCoultre (JLC), have also recognized the importance of controlling the secondary market. Audemars Piguet had started out first with a brand-controlled CPO concept where the second-hand watches would be sold in a separate boutique next to the one selling the new watches. Clients perceived this as questionable, as the brand was reselling a second time and sometimes at a higher price a watch on which it had already earned money once. But the same can be said about Rolex — which now controls Bucherer and hence captures twice a margin on the same watch.

For brands like Vacheron and JLC, which have iconic models in both their modern and vintage catalogs, CPO programs could offer a way to appeal to collectors while maintaining brand integrity. This trend towards manufacturer-backed CPO programs allows brands to both authenticate and curate the pre-owned market, ensuring their watches maintain value without excessive speculation or overinflated prices.

As more luxury brands adopt CPO models, we could see a broadening of the secondary market that blends vintage and modern offerings, underpinned by the trust that only an official brand can offer. While this won’t completely eliminate grey-market dealers, it will undoubtedly change the landscape, forcing independent resellers to adapt or risk becoming obsolete.

Prices on the secondary market are clearly influenced by its primary market desirability. Or when the demand for new watches is permanently not being served, then clients will try to get their hands on the sought-after references through the secondary market, either as a second-hand or a grey market, but new watch. Some price drops, such as those for Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe and of course Rolex are more significant, because their increase from 2019 to 2022, when the market turned mainly due to the crash of the crypto markets, was also insanely high. Those three brands aggregate more than half (~55% est. by LuxeConsult) of the transactional value of the whole secondary market and hence their price decrease is proportional to their previous increase. But to put things straight, a Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711 in steel still costs more than twice its initial retail price (CHF 75,000 vs. 30,000).

Final Thoughts: A Controlled Reset

The introduction of Rolex’s CPO program via Bucherer represents a major shift in the secondary market for luxury watches. While Rolex is clearly aiming to curb the speculative bubble and manage resale prices, it’s unlikely that we’ll see a dramatic collapse in secondary market values, particularly for vintage or rare models. Instead, this move may help create a more sustainable market where pre-owned prices reflect value rather than speculation.

For non-official resellers, this is a wake-up call. As Rolex and other luxury brands step into the pre-owned market, it’s clear that the secondary space will be a lot more regulated, curated, and competitive. The days of unchecked speculation and soaring premiums may be numbered, but for collectors, the added security of brand-backed certification brings peace of mind—perhaps the ultimate luxury in an otherwise unpredictable market.